Episode 563: October Off-Day Emails
Date October 24, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam banter about non-playoff news, then answer emails about postseason teams and search for the most exciting playoff games ever. Topics * Impact of travel and jet-lag on performance * Ned Yost's lineup construction * Trading a World Series spot * Most exciting games and highest postseason leverage index * GM involvement on in-game moves Intro Uriah Heep, "Traveller in Time" Banter * Ben is back in New York after traveling to Kansas City for the World Series. On the way he had to fly through Charlotte, on the return trip he went through Minneapolis. NYC - Charlotte - KC to MSP to NY. * Ned Yost might bench Nori Aoki for the remainder of the World Series. * Pat Gillick (CEO of the Phillies) said that he does not expect them to compete until at least 2017 or 2018. * The Padres' hitting coach and Rockies' pitching coach positions are vacant. Sam says he would rather have the Padres job. * Hitting coach padres or pitching coach rockies Email Questions * Ken: "I'm curious if any research has been done with regards to the different amount of travel each team faces, particularly with northeastern teams versus more isolated western teams like Seattle. How much of an advantage do teams on the east coast really have in terms of less wear and tear and being a selling point for players? The latter may also be more of a factor in baseball considering they can spend winters anywhere. Has anyone perhaps looked into guys who played in multiple cities in their careers and found lower production levels in seasons where they had to deal with extra mileage?" * Jeremy: "Now I know the old saying, 'Bat your best hitter sixth and he'll keep you in the mix' but Ned Yost takes this too far. Why does Alex Gordon, far and away the Royals' best hitter by OPS+, bat sixth and why does no one talk about this?" * Matt (Cambridge, MA): "Hey guys, I love the show and wait up every evening for it to be on the site. Hypothetical baseball God approaches Dayton Moore. He offers to trade Mike Trout to the Royals, along with his contract, for opening day in 2015 in exchange for the Angels receiving the Royals' current spot in the World Series. If you were Moore, would you accept? Trout in 2015 and beyond could make the Royals the best team but as we regularly see the regular season and playoffs both require a strong amount of luck. The best team clearly doesn't have close to roughly 50-50 shot to win the World Series the way the Royals do. While Trout would make the Royals a better team long term would it be greater than an incredibly strong chance at a championship which is the ultimate goal of any team?" * Matt (Portland, OR): "So my initial thinking was along the lines of you two on your podcast. If I were the GM I think that would be it for Matheny. The fact that holding your closer until you have a lead is common practice shouldn't matter and should be changed. But thinking about this more here is why it is not a fireable offense for the manager in practice. A well run team has clear and consistent lines of communication between the GM and manager and let's assume St. Louis has that. So the GM and the manager have clearly discussed this before. You have to think that there are strategy meetings where they talk about how to deploy specific personnel in certain situations so any situations like that should already have a plan and shouldn't be a surprise. The team already knows what they are going to do. It's not like the manager is like, 'Well dang what the heck do we do now?'. If the GM and the manager disagreed about how to approach this they would have worked it out by now. So by this theory the GM is also on board with the strategy that was deployed which means that now we are at 'it's a fireable offense for the GM, not the manager'. Play Index * Sam uses summed leverage index to figure out what the best or most exciting postseason games have been. He prefers consistent excitement and tension as opposed to just big swings in win probability. * The Angels at Yankees ALCS game 2 in 2009 had the highest ever total leverage index. * The highest total leverage World Series game was game 1 of the Yankees/Mets World Series in 2000. * The highest total nine inning game was a Red Sox walk-off of the Angels in game 2 of the 2007 ALDS. * The highest total leverage game seven was the final game of the 1991 World Series. Notes * Sam, on Ben's flight schedule, "You took the Nori Aoki route." * In 2014 the Padres' batting statistics at Petco Park were better than on the road. * From 2005 to 2011 the Brewers averaged 25,341 miles traveled per year, the fewest in MLB. The Mariners averaged the highest at 49,007 miles per year. Ben and Sam thinks that time zone shifts matter much more to player fatigue than miles traveled. * Sam suggests creating an Effectively Wild twitter account that posts new episodes. "Somebody set that up and tell us what the password is." * Matt's question is related to a discussion Ben and Sam had in Episode 558 about Mike Matheny's non-usage of Michael Wacha. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 563: October Off-Day Emails * MLB Team Travel by Dave Allen * Interactive MLB Travel Schedule by Baseball Savant Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes